> Interesting how dissatisfied US and Europe are with wireless, while Asia,
especially Japan, continues to have increasing user demands and profitable
businesses.
>
> r e n
>
I think the problem here is one of perceptions. What Americans
and Europeans think of as "the Web" is, after all, the full-screen
desktop experience. But relatively few Japanese regularly
browse the web at this point, and of those who do, many are
doing it by keitai. To them, this *is* the Web.
DoCoMo is now, by far, the biggest ISP in the world, on the
strength of i-mode in Japan alone. To many Japanese
consumers, DoCoMo is, in effect, the Netscape *and* the
Yahoo *and* the AOL of Japan. They never knew anything else.
Sure, browsing the Web proper (i.e., content built for desktop-
computer display) is "akin to sticking your tongue on a frozen
lamp pole". Just because cHTML is basically HTML doesn't
mean that the medium is no different. People don't go to
movie theaters to watch TV shows, after all. And the difference
between a keitai screen and a desktop computer screen is
even more dramatic than the difference between a TV screen
and a movie screen.
I think one thing that wireless-web has going for it in Japan
is that mobility is very different here than it is in the U.S.
(and probably much of Europe as well, at this point.)
In Tokyo I see people thumbtyping while walking down the street
("Walk three blocks?!" cries your average American, "No,
let's drive!") I see them on train station platforms. On
trains. In Japan, mobility still leaves your hands and eyes
free, for the most part. In the U.S., the same amount of
thumb-typing per traveled kilometer would yield a hundred
thousand added traffic fatalities per day.
Another difference in Japan is the accessibility of the
Web at destinations, like home and work: much lower.
The Japanese are coming from different expectations
for the most part.
The challenge is not to "make the Web wireless" but to
make a new Web. Japan shows that this can be done.
I *do* agree with Harmon when he says "The larger problem
with wireless Web comes in the lack of audio-ized files.
Voice-delivery (in lieu of text that would be too long for
small screens) has a future. This view requires looking at
potential content through a different set of lenses than most
webbies have grown up with, though. How many of them
know their way around a recording booth? The good stuff
will probably come out of the digital-telephony area, not
the standard webmaster milieu.
Michael Turner
www.idiom.com/~turner
> roland.baartscheer@philips.com wrote:
>
> > FYI and for making up your own mind on this subject.
> > Regards Roland
> >
> > ---------------------- Forwarded by Roland Baartscheer/EHV/CE/PHILIPS on
07/17/2000 11:21 AM ---------------------------
> >
> > list-admin@e-harmon.com on 07/14/2000 04:32:13 PM
> > Please respond to list-admin@e-harmon.com@SMTP
> > To: internet_insight_list@metzler.e-harmon.com@SMTP
> > cc:
> > Subject: [Internet Insight]2000.07.14: Wireless Web, Listen Up
> > Classification: Restricted
> > internet insight!
> > /e:harmon zero gravity/
> > 'creating the ecommerce network
> > for entrepreneurs and investors'
> > http://www.e-harmon.com
> > _____________________________________________________
> > 2000.07.14: Wireless Web, Listen Up
> >
> > By Steve Harmon
> > Chairman & CEO
> >
> > Don't believe the hype. Wireless web hype. The funadamental flaw in
> > investors chasing Internet stocks with wireless dreams is that the model
> > for monetizing wireless content and commerce is far from figured out.
> >
> > My study on this also says that the basic technology to make the Web
> > wireless is far from figured out. The early PCS or minibrowser attempts
are
> > not ready for prime time. These are the small screen cell phones with
> > limited Web browsing functionality.
> >
> > I tried the Sprint PCS MiniBrowser once -- that's right, once -- and
found
> > it to be akin to sticking your tongue on a frozen lamp pole.
> >
> > The flaw with the cell phone as browser approach is fairly
straightforward:
> > a 3-inch screen can never offer what a 21-inch PC monitor can offer.
> >
> > Yet scores of engineers at some of the world's top tech firms toil on
this
> > shrinkage approach daily. I call it the 'Honey I Shrunk The Web'
approach.
> > It's not a good idea to take visual elements that want to be 21-inches
> > diaplayed and put them on a 3-inch display.
> >
> > Ot to take a stock quote, news headline or chart and force it on the
baby
> > screen.
> >
> > The logical disconnect is quite large.
> >
> > PC monitors are meant for visual interaction. Cell phone and PDA screens
> > are meant for text or number display. Pushing stock charts and news to
cell
> > phones ignores the fact that the phone has always been an audio device.
> >
> > Much ado about audio drives the buzz surrounding companies such as
> > privately-held TellMe Networks. You dial up a number and get a stock
quote,
> > weather report, etc. Endure an ad is the business model.
> >
> > AT&T invested in the firm and no doubt, it's where the portals and phone
> > companies may someday collide. It's also an area that I can foresee the
Web
> > music firms breaking into. MP3, Napster, what's stopping them from
becoming
> > "mobile radio networks" streaming out music with ads. Nothing. And they
pay
> > a royalty to BMI or ASCAP for songs played.
> >
> > A few Internet content companies claim that they can garner dollars from
> > delivering content to wireless phones and getting a monthly fee.
Perhaps.
> > But I expect this number to be in the pennies per month per subscriber
and
> > not the dollars per month being bantered about. With 500 million cell
> > phones I don't see the wireless phone providers paying content providers
> > $1.5 billion per month at $3/subscriber. Especially for text content.
> >
> > The larger problem with wireless Web comes in the lack of audio-ized
files
> > that have been tailor-made for the wireless phone experience.
> >
> > With concerns over cell phones and cancer from overuse it's unlikely
that
> > anyone wants to listen to an audio book via the phone. You're left with
> > stocks and news headlines. Sounds more like mobile radio then doesn't
it?
> >
> > Short audio bursts followed by ads.
> >
> > If the model proves true then what's stopping basic phone service from
> > becoming ad supported? Or voice communications as a form of mobile radio
> > since data is data whether it's your voice or music. Airtime is airtime.
> >
> > I tend to believe that the wireless Web will be more audio driven than
text
> > driven, that the current crop of Web to cell phone efforts miss the mark
> > and intrinsic strength of the phone as audio device, that several
companies
> > to be created will be the ones that could dominate what wireless means
> > rather than PC-based Internet companies.
> >
> > note: Steve Harmon is traveling and returns with more investment
insights
> > July 24.
> >
>
> --
> ascii: r e n f i e l d
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> morgan stanley dean witter japan
> e-business technologies | engineering and strategy
>
>
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Received on Tue Jul 18 10:15:11 2000