Interesting how dissatisfied US and Europe are with wireless, while Asia, especially Japan, continues to have increasing user demands and profitable businesses.
r e n
roland.baartscheer@philips.com wrote:
> FYI and for making up your own mind on this subject.
> Regards Roland
>
> ---------------------- Forwarded by Roland Baartscheer/EHV/CE/PHILIPS on 07/17/2000 11:21 AM ---------------------------
>
> list-admin@e-harmon.com on 07/14/2000 04:32:13 PM
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> cc:
> Subject: [Internet Insight]2000.07.14: Wireless Web, Listen Up
> Classification: Restricted
> internet insight!
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> _____________________________________________________
> 2000.07.14: Wireless Web, Listen Up
>
> By Steve Harmon
> Chairman & CEO
>
> Don't believe the hype. Wireless web hype. The funadamental flaw in
> investors chasing Internet stocks with wireless dreams is that the model
> for monetizing wireless content and commerce is far from figured out.
>
> My study on this also says that the basic technology to make the Web
> wireless is far from figured out. The early PCS or minibrowser attempts are
> not ready for prime time. These are the small screen cell phones with
> limited Web browsing functionality.
>
> I tried the Sprint PCS MiniBrowser once -- that's right, once -- and found
> it to be akin to sticking your tongue on a frozen lamp pole.
>
> The flaw with the cell phone as browser approach is fairly straightforward:
> a 3-inch screen can never offer what a 21-inch PC monitor can offer.
>
> Yet scores of engineers at some of the world's top tech firms toil on this
> shrinkage approach daily. I call it the 'Honey I Shrunk The Web' approach.
> It's not a good idea to take visual elements that want to be 21-inches
> diaplayed and put them on a 3-inch display.
>
> Ot to take a stock quote, news headline or chart and force it on the baby
> screen.
>
> The logical disconnect is quite large.
>
> PC monitors are meant for visual interaction. Cell phone and PDA screens
> are meant for text or number display. Pushing stock charts and news to cell
> phones ignores the fact that the phone has always been an audio device.
>
> Much ado about audio drives the buzz surrounding companies such as
> privately-held TellMe Networks. You dial up a number and get a stock quote,
> weather report, etc. Endure an ad is the business model.
>
> AT&T invested in the firm and no doubt, it's where the portals and phone
> companies may someday collide. It's also an area that I can foresee the Web
> music firms breaking into. MP3, Napster, what's stopping them from becoming
> "mobile radio networks" streaming out music with ads. Nothing. And they pay
> a royalty to BMI or ASCAP for songs played.
>
> A few Internet content companies claim that they can garner dollars from
> delivering content to wireless phones and getting a monthly fee. Perhaps.
> But I expect this number to be in the pennies per month per subscriber and
> not the dollars per month being bantered about. With 500 million cell
> phones I don't see the wireless phone providers paying content providers
> $1.5 billion per month at $3/subscriber. Especially for text content.
>
> The larger problem with wireless Web comes in the lack of audio-ized files
> that have been tailor-made for the wireless phone experience.
>
> With concerns over cell phones and cancer from overuse it's unlikely that
> anyone wants to listen to an audio book via the phone. You're left with
> stocks and news headlines. Sounds more like mobile radio then doesn't it?
>
> Short audio bursts followed by ads.
>
> If the model proves true then what's stopping basic phone service from
> becoming ad supported? Or voice communications as a form of mobile radio
> since data is data whether it's your voice or music. Airtime is airtime.
>
> I tend to believe that the wireless Web will be more audio driven than text
> driven, that the current crop of Web to cell phone efforts miss the mark
> and intrinsic strength of the phone as audio device, that several companies
> to be created will be the ones that could dominate what wireless means
> rather than PC-based Internet companies.
>
> note: Steve Harmon is traveling and returns with more investment insights
> July 24.
>
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morgan stanley dean witter japan
e-business technologies | engineering and strategy
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Received on Mon Jul 17 12:21:56 2000