Victor's comparison to the PC - the IBM/Microsoft/Intel
troika -- seems close to the mark. DoCoMo seems
to have lined up the players in a way roughly analogous
to how IBM did the PC.
However, it remains to be seen how open the
architectures are, here. Can handset makers set
standards more or less independently, just as
the PC industry wrenched control of bus
standards away from IBM, when IBM tried to
regain control of them for proprietary advantage?
To splice in the cMode theme: are the handset manu-
facturers here in Japan free enough to approach
the leading vending machine operators about
vending machine retrofits and handset standards-
setting that could blindside DoCoCaCoMoLa?
As I suggested in the posting that started this
thread, the lameness of cMode could be a
calculated feigned weakness before a show
of strength (a stretch, I admit). But what if there's
no show of strength coming? NTT might have its
amakudari factions pressing DoCoMo to make
cMode look stupid just to quash the whole
idea of paying for vending machine goods with
cell phones. Stranger things have happened.
Why would they want to do this?
Drew points out that cMode seems to be a lot
of activity to no good end. But it's still nothing
compared to the amount of economic activity
generated by the status quo in coin-op. And
status quo is a big barrier here.
Japan is facing 5% unemployment the way most
other countries in the developed world treated
*double-digit* unemployment. A one-point-
one-click-mobile-billed coin-op replacement
might endanger tens of thousands of jobs over
the next few years. Anybody who shrugs this
off hasn't been studying Japan very long.
Moves like this can be stopped here by
entrenched interests who command the
high ground.
Back in the 80s, when policy intellectuals
in many countries were mulling the meaning of
"networked nation", a commissioned study in
Japan came back with the message: "We're
already a networked nation."
What they meant of course, is that Todai grads
in the big ministries enjoyed a steep discount
on their phone bills. And took full advantage of
it. Through this coordination, they kept the full-
employment convoys in tight formation. This was,
needless to say, all in the line of their patriotic duty --
and who needs more networking than that?
Getting back to the point: PC makers could ditch
IBM in their joint de facto standards setting process.
But they could do this pretty easily, because the
bus standard they defined only had to connect cards
inside the chassis.
The handset providers getting together to define
a cMode that would really work is quite another
thing. It bogs down at the threshold of networking,
and the slogging gets worse when you talk about
on-line payments, which NTT strongly dominates.
Getting around this will mean more complications
for the consumer, complications that might prove
fatal to the concept.
One possible end-run: lots of vending machines here
take 1,000 yen bills (approx. USD $8.) If the handset
manufacturers could agree on a keitai-based digital
wallet, you could imagine people crediting this wallet
though the bill-feed, and gaining most of the one-
point-one-click advantage. Financially, this works
for the vending machine operators -- they can make
interest earnings on the float. But it throws up
a whole consumer psychology barrier that might
impede acceptance. And if vending machines are
as entangled with organized crime in Japan as they
are in many other countries (I don't know), it could
be total non-starter.
-michael turner
leap@gol.com
----- Original Message -----
From: "Victor Pikula" <victor@pikula.com>
To: <keitai-l@appelsiini.net>
Sent: Thursday, September 20, 2001 10:06 PM
Subject: (keitai-l) Re: DoCoCaCo etc etc
Michael Turner wrote:
> The Japanese model works. But, as Joseph
> Schumpeter pointed out, so does socialism
> (and he was no socialist.) The questions are:
> how much of it do you want, who really
> benefits when you subtract all the costs,
> and what are the risks, political as well as
> economic?
To add another question to your list above: Is it better to have one company
having a heavy controlling influence over itエs partners in the initial
design stage of a new product/service?
As to clarify a bit: Maybe the influence DoCoMo has or had over its
suppliers (hard and soft) was essential for i-mode becoming a runaway
success with consumers. In the very first design stage of a product/service,
maybe it is good to have some strict design rules that everyone involved in
production adheres to in order to guarantee user-oriented consistency... see
Wintel and the PC. Other software and hardware makers followed their design
specs.
In a later stage of PC evolution, the world saw the first 3D cards by 3DFX,
and later nVidia whoエs Geforce chipset is now is the standard for the
industry--but wait! Direct3D --(c)MS BTW-- changed all that, and now it
doesnエt matter what kind of chipset your 3D card has, games wiill always
run!
See what I am getting to?
I canエt say it any clearer just yet, please allow me to discuss this with
the people over here in Barcelona (we are having a Uni conference on it :)
Cheers,
Victor
[ Need archives? How to unsubscribe? http://www.appelsiini.net/keitai-l/ ]
[ Need archives? How to unsubscribe? http://www.appelsiini.net/keitai-l/ ]
Received on Thu Sep 20 20:09:52 2001