DoCoMo's capacity problems can't be compared with anyone else's, because
DoCoMo is using a uniquely Japanese network technology: PDC - GSM. You
really can't draw conclusions from DoCoMo's deployment schedule about what
other operators might need. Plus, Japanese tariffs are much higher than
those in Europe, which keeps traffic artificially low relative to Europe for
a given penetration.
GPRS and EDGE, of course, do nothing for capacity. EDGE, moreover, isn't
going to be deployed by any serious operator in Europe, except perhaps Blu
in Italy and Bouygues in France (who failed to get 3G licences, although
Bouygues may yet get one). Why deploy EDGE (available H2 2002) when you can
deploy UMTS (available H2 2002)? Don't forget, if you pay a few bilions for
the licence, that gives you a huge incentive to get the network up and
running as soon as possible, to start earning a return on your payments.
That's quite apart from deployment conditions in the licences. You can't
just sit on them - you hav to build out to certain levels by certain dates.
The previous poster also seems to assume that 'other markets' will reach
Japanese penetration levels in 2005-2010.In fact, Japan is behind Western
Europe, where penetration is was 62.1% in December 2000. Take out France (a
paltry 49.7%) and that number would be rather higher.
The really interesting things start happening (IMHO) when it's cheaper to
make voice calls on mobile than on fixed, which 3G will make possible. Then
you'll hear a 'giant sucking sound', as the flow of voice minutes onto
mobile becomes a flood, and the fixed networks see thair traffic halve...
*That's* why operators paid so much for 3G licences.
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Received on Thu May 17 10:37:47 2001