Like Hubert, I guess I'm a bit surprised that not more than 30% of i-mode
subscribers actually use the service.
A global survey by Boston Consulting Group last year found that only 50% of
Europeans, and 30% of Americans with WAP phones actually used WAP services.
The high barrier to start using WAP services is often blamed for this.
i-mode, on the other hand, is often held as an example where the barrier to
start using new services is much lower.
Still, no better up-take...
And I guess DoCoMo much rather uses the 20m subscriber figure than 4m. Can't
blame them, everybody else measure subscribers the same way (eg number of
WAP phones sold worldwide = WAP users)
/Daniel Helmer
-----Original Message-----
From: Hubert Hung-Hsien Chang [mailto:hubert@4w1h.com]
Sent: Wednesday, March 28, 2001 12:24 PM
To: keitai-l@appelsiini.net
Subject: (keitai-l) Re: Actual i-mode users in Nov.2000: 3,870,689
(rough estimate)
So the statistics indicates NTT DoCoMo uses the ownership as the
indicator for the sales of i-mode users(regardless whether they
use it or not.) But I assume they are paying it? There was a thead
of discussion in regards to how retailers just add the i-mode
charge to the users as long as they didn't say they don't want it.
But I found it a bit puzzling, it is 1-button push. So, 12 million
users who own the i-mode phone have never push the button during
the entire Nov?
Puzzled and a little disturbed.
Hubert
On Tue, 27 Mar 2001, Victor Pikula wrote:
>Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 18:18:32 +0200
>From: Victor Pikula <victor@pikula.com>
>Reply-To: keitai-l@appelsiini.net
>To: keitai-l@appelsiini.net
>Subject: (keitai-l) Actual i-mode users in Nov.2000: 3,870,
> 689 (rough estimate)
>
>
>Hello list members,
>
>To come to some conclusion about the number of actual i-mode users, I tried
>and combined statistics from a number of sources. First please read the
>explanation below, and, above all, remember the German proverb:
>
>"Only trust statistics you have manipulated yourself"
>
>
>1) Discussing the actual usage of i-mode was difficult due to the lack of
>statistical data on this topic. But now, Hakuhodo Institute of Life and
>Living has released data on the actual usage of internet-enabled phones for
>internet access.
>
>http://www.nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com/wcs/leaf?CID=onair/asabt/fw/126491
>
>2) We already had data from NTT DoCoMo on the number of i-mode capable
>handset owners and monthly subscriber numbers for the i-mode service. This
>number is now 21+ mln, but we'll use the November number for consistency
>with the above Hakuhodo data: 15,410,000.
>
>http://www.nttdocomo.co.jp/i/contract/index.html
>
>3) D2 Communications has some statistics on i-mode owners discriminated by
>age group. I believe this data also only refers to the percentage of i-mode
>*owners*. Please be carefull to differentiate between *owners* and *users*
>in this context. The Hakuhodo research has the only data identifying this
>difference.
>
>http://www.d2c.co.jp/user/body02_01.html
>http://www.d2c.co.jp/user/body02_02.html
>
>Now, I combined these statistics in the following spreadsheet:
>http://www.pikula.com/i-mode_users.xls
>
>... my conclusion is that the number of i-mode *users* adds up to
>3,870,689.
>This is only for the age group 19~74 though.
>
>
>Known problems:
>1) Age groups had to be combined for Hakuhodo/D2 data. Therefore "~19" is
>left out. "19~29" is a combination of the D2 "20~24" and "25~29" group.
>"30~49" is a combination of D2: "30~34", "35~39" and 2/3*"40+".
>Consequently, "50~74" is 1/3*"40+". Seemed like a good way to split up the
>group "40+" by assuming that only 1/3 of this group (owning and i-mode
>cellular phone) is over 50. This does not change the concluding number too
>much, since i-mode usage numbers over 40 is only a small contribution to
>the
>total number.
>
>2) Data from the Hakuhodo research accounts for *all* internet-enabled
>phones in Japan. So it includes i-mode, J-Sky and EZweb. I had to assume
>actual usage is the same for all services. Most probably, it is, except for
>maybe Tu-ka which has, to my understanding, a lot of young users.
>
>3) There is no indication in the original texts on the size of the sample
>group for the Hakuhodo and D2 data. For all we know, Hakuhodo could have
>done it on Shibuya square in just 10 minutes. Still, this would give you
>1.000.000 valid responses from what I have seen there ;-) Also the D2
>statistics are not dated, but this should not be a major problem.
>
>
>Final remark: Please understand that I know about the coastline-of-Norway
>problem, and I have played Soccer with Mandelbrot just last week. This data
>is for my own research, and I just thought I would share it with the list.
>If you want to see some *really* sick data (for the die-hards out there) I
>also found a graphical relationship between new DoCoMo PDC buyers and
>i-mode
>subscribers... Trust me... you don't wanna know ;-)
>
>Regards,
>Victor
>
>
>
>[ Did you check the archives? http://www.appelsiini.net/keitai-l/ ]
>
>
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Received on Wed Mar 28 07:49:20 2001