Bravo to the posts in this thread! It's nice to see this discussion taking
place.
I'm a happy 702NK user and while I've noticed a few areas in which the
phone doesn't work it's hardly a big problem. I was up in the mountains
around Hakone a few weeks ago and the phone didn't work there but a network
scan revealed it could find the DoCoMo network but it's hardly worth
switching over - we're talking about less than half of one percent of my
annual cellular use. Sure, if I was in the mountains all the time it would
be an issue but I'm not sure many people worry about that. Around Tokyo I
haven't had any problems for a while - a year ago the Vodafone shop even
advised me to wait a while until the network was built out - but I haven't
seen a problem recently except in places where cell phone usage is always a
possible problem, like underground malls or the like.
Certainly, there does seem to be a bit of Vodafone bashing going on in the
local media. I'm surprised people are talking up Softbank so much .... if
network coverage is such a problem does it mean that people seriously think
Softbank will be able to do a better job of building a network than
Vodafone? We're talking about a company that has managed to lose personal
details on millions of customers. With spam being such a problem I would be
much more concerned about having my email address added to a spam list that
the occasional inconvenience of not being able to make a call while I am
skiing.
No one has so far commented on EAccess. They just announced a test of HSDPA
in Tokyo and stated that they are preparing to apply for a license to use
1.7GHz spectrum to offer WCDMA data and voice.
Think about how different the market could be in 2 years time and you might
conclude that all this Vodafone bashing and panic about subscriber growth
is really missing the point .....
DoCoMo and Au will surely still be around and major players as will
Vodafone. Tu-ka will likely be gone or near to death (unless Vodafone sells
its 2G network to them, what future is there in a network that only covers
the area between Tokyo and Osaka) and there is the very likely prospect
that EAccess, Softbank and perhaps others are entering the market with
their own services. Couple this with number portability and I think you'll
see competition that's a level above what we have now. Everyone will be
offering new discounts and DoCoMo's quarterly financial reports vividly
demonstrate the hit that discounts have on the bottom line.
That's when handset development and procurement costs will really start to
become important.
And let's not forget, the local press has been writing off Vodafone's poor
performance for the last two years but they've lost what? Maybe two or
three of percentage points of market share. The most recent subscriber
figures sure were bad but they also show how easily the market moves
between carriers. DoCoMo managed the offer the family waribiki a month
early and close to 100,000 people shifter carriers just like that. With
number portability that change will be even easier.
I think the other stuff is a bit of a side-show too. International roaming?
Of course no one cares about it, they've never been offered it or
experienced it before. Don't all your friends this it's "sugoi" when you
tell them your phone works overseas?
The other unknown is video telephony. Now, it's failed for the last 30+
years and I'm not suggesting that it's about to become the next killer ap
but supposing, once a critical mass of your friends have 3G video phones,
it does begin to take off .... where does that leave Au? If it becomes
popular you could easily see a shift in subscribers from Au to WCDMA
networks.
Vodafone isn't doing as well in attracting new subscribers but Nik's right
when he says that people shouldn't use that as the only judgement of how
the company is doing. There's a lot going on in the market!
Martyn
Received on Tue Feb 15 05:20:07 2005