(keitai-l) Re: economist link

From: nick may <nick_at_kyushu.com>
Date: 12/07/04
Message-Id: <8ABDD93B-4837-11D9-BE94-00039377A93A@kyushu.com>
On Dec 7, 2004, at 4:46 PM, Gerhard Fasol wrote:

> How do you mean competitive? The competition is between KDDI, DoCoMo
> and Vodafone, and PHS.

No!

I think this is simply to misconstrue the problem. In the medium term 
the competition is between ALL the methods of getting data onto what is 
probably the single device (pda/keitai/ipod, whatever) that users are 
prepared to carry around.

Coca Cola claim that they are after 'throatshare" and thus that they 
compete with water  - that's a bit  "precious" - but if it comes to 
getting mp3s onto "the device I will carry whatever that is" , 3G IS in 
competition with all the other methods (wifi and direct transfer after 
broadband download). If I have a 3G phone that I buy cheap and I don't 
use it much, I suspect I COST the carriers money....

> These systems all will break down
> if all users do the same thing at the same time.

.... which is why I asked about "many" users - not "all".

> In a few years, you will only get 3G and do not have
> the choice anymore between 2G or 3G.

And if I - and others - use it in the same way as I currently use 2G 
(lots of 3 second calls and a few short emails) the carriers will go 
bust (outside Japan, at least). They have to make users shift more bits 
around and or buy their services.  A LOT more bits, as outside Japan 
they have the cost of their 3G licences to pay....

I can see the market for 2G type services on 3G hardware. I see the 
market for huge data transfers (Mp3 and video) to handsets - but not 
over 3G. So are we, as consumers, to resign ourselves to not having 
over-air data transfers of that kind to our handsets just because it 
does not fit in with the carriers business model?!

What I don't like (picture tiny stamping foot here...) is the fact that 
we have such AWFUL bone headed, dead end, un-lust-worthy handsets aimed 
at young consumers with attention spans that would disgrace a goldfish 
here in Japan with the carriers not doing things that would directly 
benefit consumers because they - the carriers - don't, or can't make 
money out of it. Things like consumer level voip, for a start.

> In a few years, you will only get 3G and do not have
> the choice anymore between 2G or 3G.
>
> Did you try taking a steam engine pulled train from
> Tokyo to Osaka recently?

Your analogy does not work. Steam trains go slowly. Let me ask you - 
how will a 3 second "I'm on the train" phone call over the 3G network 
be "better" than the one over the 2G network?

Nick
Received on Tue Dec 7 12:05:44 2004