>Actually, it may be more than than that. I think that fixed line
>penetration probably has a relation to mobile, in that you'd expect
>fixed line penetration to be lower if mobile access is available
>at the same speed. For example, I have no fixed line access (telephone
>or Internet) at home because I've got a keitai and ISDN-speed
>wireless Internet access (through bmobile). But if they don't take
>this sort of thing into account, it make make the overall Internet
>access situation in countries with good mobile service look worse
>than it is.
>
Trying to say that mobile and PC internet usage are substitutes is a
complex issue. Scandinavia has the highest fixed line penetration rate in
europe and the highest use of SMS per capita. Japan had a higher PC
internet usage than all countries in western europe except scandinavia when
i-mode services were started in february 1999. And examples of other
products are even more interesting. the US was the first country to use
mainframes, minicomputers, PCs, calculators, and PDAs although all of these
products could be construed as substitutes. Japan, the US, and probably
also europe were early users of portable music players in spite of having a
high penetration rate of home stereo systems. these and other examples
(there are many many others) suggest that these products are not simple
substitutes for each other but actually represent new markets. for those of
you who really want to understand some of these dynamics, read "the
innovators dilemma" by clayton christensen, his other articles, or my home
page for discussions of "disruptive technologies."
jeff funk
kobe university
http://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/~funk/index.html
Received on Fri Sep 20 04:57:45 2002