On Monday, June 17, 2002, at 10:20 , Nick May wrote:
> What, in your view, should Docomo do to get back on track?
The key is with the government to clean up the Japanese mobile spectrum
and set directions for harmonisation. DoCoMo has the lobbying power to
get things moving.
> Or do you
> regard it as too late, given the tech decisions already taken?
I am a notorious optimist - "Never too late" is my motto.
Besides, many countries have gone through a process of migrating
technologies and frequency bands. Most did so with success. Korea had
mandated its mobile industry to migrate from a domestic system to CDMA.
Singapore recently shut down its CDMA network and migrated all users to
GSM within a period of a few months and Australia mandated its industry
to migrate from AMPS to CDMA within one year.
Admittedly, due to the fact that the Japanese spectrum is so cluttered
and there are many more users to move it would be a bit more of a
challenge, but if there was a will and once the Japanese would accept
the challenge, there is nothing they couldn't work out.
A key would be the introduction of SIM cards (if not compatible with
GSM, then at least compatible between the Japanese operators) for all
networks, possibly including PHS.
Properly marketed and in combination with new features this could cause
many subscribers to shop for new SIM card equipped handsets. Such
features could be new applications that can be deployed via SIM but also
authentication services for public WiFi (ie. slide your DoCoMo SIM into
this reader attached to your notebook and get on DoCoMos downtown WLAN
internet service) and SIM card readers plus phone book synchronisation
software for desktop computers.
Next step would be to enable the networks for transparent service
throughout different frequency bands. Thus, if you have a SIM card from
DoCoMo, you could slide it into a 800/900 MHz PDC handset, or a 1.5GHz
PDC handset and you would receive service in either band. Likewise for
KDDI moving between TuKa and AU services.
Local number portability could assist this even further, but it would
not be necessary to accomplish spectrum harmonisation.
Once a majority of subscribers have new SIM card equipped phones,
networks can start reassigning smaller chunks of spectrum and gain
paired spectrum (with 45 MHz frequency separation) in the 800 MHz band
for CDMA service and in the 900 MHz band for GSM service. Also, DoCoMo's
expertise in dual mode PHS/PDC handsets and services (Doccimo) could be
very helpful during such a transition period.
The main issue would be who is going to offer what kind of service. For
instance, J-Phone have no spectrum in the cluttered 800/900 MHz band but
they may nevertheless be interested in getting some chunk of the newly
harmonised spectrum in order to offer GSM service or perhaps even CDMA
service as that would beautifully fit into their global package. On the
other hand DoCoMo, may not be interested in offering CDMA service and
KDDI may not be interested in offering GSM service. Thus, there are
quite a number of likely constellations:
Just one example of such a constellation ...
- KDDI and J-Phone offering CDMA services in the 800 MHz band
- DoCoMo and J-Phone offering GSM services in the 900 MHz band
- DoCoMo and J-Phone offering PDC services in the 1.5 GHz band
- KDDI, DoCoMo and Astel continuing their PHS services in the 1.9 GHz
band
In any event it would be wise to have at least two operators in each
service, failing sufficient interest a new market entrant could be
invited.
Also, I would expect that TuKa's bad debt problem needs to be sorted out
as part of any such harmonisation. Either KDDI would seriously reenter
the PDC market and try to make TuKa work or TuKa would need to be sold
to someone who did or the spectrum would be reassigned to the remaining
1.5 GHz operators. Spectrum is a scarce public resource, those who are
allocated spectrum should have an obligation to put it to beneficial use
for the public. At present, the spectrum allocated to TuKa is not put to
good use, in fact it is wasted, while at the same time other operators
are struggling with the limited spectrum they have. Certainly, Both
J-Phone and DoCoMo could put that spectrum to much better use than TuKa
does and therefore it would make sense to negotiate a bargain with KDDI
by which the TuKa spectrum is reallocated to J-Phone and DoCoMo.
However, bearing responsibility for TuKa's mismanagement, KDDI cannot
expect to have others pick up the entire bill for cleaning up TuKa's bad
debt, they would have to share a significant part of it. In return KDDI
would gain a clean uncluttered chunk of CDMA spectrum within the 800 MHz
band harmonised with the US band, allowing economies of scale on the
equipment side (handsets and infrastructure) and seamless international
roaming without quirks.
As I see it, there are three keys to spectrum harmonisation in Japan ...
- on the political side, will and determination
- on the technical side, SIM cards to ease transition
- on the bargaining side, TuKa's spectrum
However, the present view is more like ...
- muzukashii desu ne
translation in this context:
"Ah well, yes, this would be what we should do, but it looks like a lot
of political work and some pain as well - so scary"
and
- kangaette okimasu
translation in this context:
"Can we not just sit on our butts for a while and wait for someone else
to sort this out ?"
Thus, at present everybody seems to hope that 3G will just do the whole
thing for them and the problem magically goes away. However, overall
this has been the policy in Japan for a decade now with little success.
The lesson is likely to be that sooner or later you have to sort out
your problems for they don't go away on their own. And the trouble is
that usually the longer you wait the more painful the exercise turns out
in the end.
But as I said, I am a notorious optimist ;-)
Hey, it looks as if the US are in the process of beating Mexico in the
Soccer world cup while I am writing this. If that doesn't justify to be
hopeful against all odds ... what else does ?
regards
benjamin
Received on Mon Jun 17 11:33:32 2002