Jeff,
I agree very much on the technology Pandora's box theory, the mobile
internet has redefined the limits of the possible. By that definition it is
not possible to know or really predict in advance how this space will evolve
and I think that is why we are all here because its a such a buzz to watch
this think unfold in front of us.
I liken it to going into a room which you have no idea of its size, layout
and how many other doors there are. Unless you enter into it and then find
out what else there is to explore you will have no idea of the potential and
pitfalls that lie beyond.
On your online banking point, I am not really sure that it was ever Docomo`s
intention that it should be the mainstay of their service, although they
launched i-mode with 12 banks (now they have circa 350?) on the official
menu (which if my memory serves me correctly had around 40 to 60 contents at
launch in Feb 1999). Apparently though, Banking did a have significant role
to play in legitimising the service offering. Thus the wisdom of the time
was that if the most conservative of Japanese institutions, banks, are
listed on the contents menu it will be far easier for Docomo to talk to
other content providers as their nascent service had are already garnered
tacit old economy approval from its association with banks.
So much for the theory, there are a few flaws in it though. Why should the
core adopter youth market really care about the respectability and prestige
offered by banks being listed on the service menu and would the cash cow
content providers offering ringtones and screen save downloads think wow I
really must be in with the banks?
Perhaps though banks really were a key to the positioning of Docomo in the
consumer mind. The first commercial for i-mode featured a mobile banking
scene, cut to Ryoko Hirosue in the make up room having here hair done, she
says "excuse me" to her hair stylist who replies "telephone?" , "yes, I'm
making a remittance (furikomi)" is her reply. Even with the wealth of
banking and other financial transaction services on the menu this category
still only accounts for about 5% of access on the i-mode system. On
independent surveys that we have carried out on a sample of i-mode users
only about 20% of users reported ever using an online banking service.
Regards
Jamie Cattell
Research International
-----Original Message-----
From: Funk [mailto:funk@rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp]
Sent: Wednesday, November 21, 2001 10:20 AM
To: keitai-l@appelsiini.net
Subject: (keitai-l) Re: And dat's da twoof (was Re: The truth about
mobile data)
> Initial conditioned responses to new media technologies are likely to be
> wrong, and especially when the responses come from technologists. The
> inventor of the phonograph thought he was inventing a medium for the
> transmission of voice messages. The inventor of the telephone thought he
> was inventing a medium for the transmission of music. And technologists
who
> came of age with computers forget that the printing press is also an
> information technology (neither advanced nor obsolete, simply mature), and
> should therefore be combined with even the newest technology where
possible
> and appropriate. Exactly how? That won't necessarily be obvious.
(Wasn't
> that the great Xerox PARC accidental discovery--that their attempt at a
> "paperless office" generated *more* paper, not less?)
this is a great point. this is exactly what the rest of the world should
remember when they look at the japanese mobile internet. the japanese
mobile internet has turned out much differently than most people thought,
but not because the japanese are weird, but because new technologies often
turn out differently than we thought they would. even docomo was surprised
by the success of the entertainment technologies as it was betting on
mobile banking and other financial transactions. most of the initial
approximately 70 sites on i-mode are still not successful because they were
the wrong set of applications.
Jeff Funk
kobe university
http://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/~funk/index.html
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Received on Wed Nov 21 05:55:02 2001