Uh, no... It is my distinct impression that imode was NTT's
response to a PHS division that was severe open wound
that did nothing but bleed money. My understanding of the
economics is that, given the extensive 10 year PHS roll-out
and dismal voice handset campaigns, PHS has yet to pay for
itself even with the magical spin doctoring of abandoning it
as a voice network and using it almost exclusively for data.
Ask any good politician / manager and they will tell you that
reality is a simple matter of perception. As a consequence,
you will find many people who disagree with me. Middle
ground reality consists of a massive loss that has been spun
and shuffled around a absolutely *huge* quazi-governmental
organization and it would be difficult, if not to impossible, to
find that loss if you were to look for it today.
The single most important reason that 3G is taking so long
to roll out in other countries (and, in the end, may not be rolled
out at all) is that cellular carriers can not hide the massive
investment and risk it takes to build a network, with adequate
coverage and capacity, in such an easy manner that NTT was
able to accomplish. Given the drop in growth, I believe that 3G
data networks equivalent to PHS and its successors will *never*
be rolled out in many parts of the world. When you couple
this with the fact that that many cultures have become accustom
to obtaining their internet access in a more "traditional" way
and do not posses gadget-freak quality of the Japanese market,
this outcome becomes quite clear. Sometimes, I wonder how
many governments will go into deficit because of uncollected
frequency spectrum "revenue".
Kyle Barrow wrote:
>
> Was not i-mode DoCoMo's response to Keitai saturation?
>
> An employee of the local Keitai shop I know says they have been relying
> on Keitai upgrades not new users for years so I guess with the less than
> spectacular launch of FOMA and delayed introduction of Au XHTML phones,
> some shops must be hurting.
>
> Kyle
>
> X-9 DESIGN LAB
> http://www.X-9.com
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: keitai-l-bounce@appelsiini.net
> [mailto:keitai-l-bounce@appelsiini.net] On Behalf Of Juergen Specht
> Sent: Friday, November 09, 2001 8:47 PM
> To: keitai-l@appelsiini.net
> Subject: (keitai-l) Saturation reached? Keitai shops close...
>
> Hi keitai-l,
>
> in the last 3 weeks I saw 6 Keitai shops closing in my
> nearest neighborhood (3 in Shimokitazawa, 3 in Shibuya).
>
> Whats this? The bad economy? Saturation (71million Keitai
> users are enough maybe) reached?
>
> Juergen
> --
> Juergen Specht CTO, Nooper.com - Mobile Services Inc. Tokyo, Japan
> i-mode/FOMA consulting, development, testing: http://nooper.co.jp/
>
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Received on Sat Nov 10 07:28:31 2001