Hi Robb,
Thank-you for the support. Here's the column, published in the April
issue of Telecom Asia. Comments are most welcome.
Tony
P.S. Andrea. I know the rules regarding quoting off the list, as
delivered by Mika on several occasions, but it was late in the evening
and about 15 mins before deadline. Still no excuses, I will follow the
rules if the occasion arises again.
------------
Those i-mode/mobile data blues
For the last six months of so, Dotconomy has been following the
discussions on a mailing list focused on NTT DoCoMo’s i-mode service (or
Keitai, as the group’s member like to refer to it – Keitai being the
Japanese term for mobiles).
Along with the latest developments on the Keitai front, the topic of
discussion varies from the latest handsets to DoCoMo's billing gateway
policies. The list has proved to be an invaluable source of information
on the Japanese mobile industry, and particularly DoCoMo’s roaring path
to success and world domination on the wireless data front.
Last month, one user, Jerry (not his real name), who posts regular items
and operators a Web and i-mode business in Japan and is somewhat of a
guru in the matter, highlighted one of his favorite sites: “Natasha
Nakamura's Diary", which is about the weekly musing of a depressed young
Japanese girl that somehow caught Jerry's attention, as well as many
others on the list.
“It was my most hated site, but I could not stop reading it,” Jerry
wrote. “It was hard enough to survive the week while I was waiting for
the Friday update to read what makes her this time depressive [sic]. Was
it the crowded train? A dog with clothes? The year 2001? The weather? Or
just her pure existence?”
I don’t live in Japan and don’t even read Japanese, so I’ve not
experienced the site, but "Natasha Nakamura’s Diary" sounds like one of
those innovative sites that has somehow capture the imagination of
wireless users.
After all, no successful wireless data service has ever been planned.
Major successes like i-mode in Japan and SMS in the Philippines (and
increasingly in the rest of the world) have happened more or less by accident.
Accidental success
When it was launched, i-mode didn’t even have the support of handset
manufacturers, and DoCoMo had to use its considerable influence to
pressure mobile makers into producing products for the service. Even
when it became the most popular way for Japanese users to access the
Internet, the industry remained in shocked disbelief. Only when DoCoMo
had signed up 10 million users, then 20 million, did people finally
start to believe in the service.
Likewise with SMS – Steven van Zanen, global product manager for CMG
Wireless, a leading supplying of SMS infrastructure, points out that
SMS’ success happened in a time when all the wireless operators were
still focused on voice.
According to van Zanen, SMS was seen by operators largely as a platform
to enhance voice services, like voicemail message notification, offered
free of charge.
“Then prepaid allowed everybody to have a mobile phone and young people
just found a cheaper way to communicate with each other than calling
each other up,” he said.
So perhaps it should come as no surprise that the musings of a depressed
Japanese girl would attract so many dedicated users.
“I don't see often a site which has this sticky effect, read it, hate it
and complain about it...and wait for the next dose,” Jerry wrote.
Tragic ending
Here comes the bad news. "Natasha Nakamura’s Diary" is dead, taken off
the air (so to speak). “No announcement, no explanation, not even a
funeral,” Jerry laments.
Despite being on the official menu of the i-mode service and, as pointed
out by Jerry, a somewhat popular site, Natasha Nakamura is no longer
posting her weekly complaints on life for the enjoyment of i-mode users.
Maybe Natasha has found a new life, moved to another country or is
married and living happily ever after with her prince – no one knows.
Jerry thinks there is a much simpler explanation: Natasha picked the
wrong business model because the site was free, requiring no monthly fee
for users.
Many industry experts have pinpointed i-mode’s success to its business
model, which allows sites to charge for content, as well as billing
services to collect those monthly fees for sites.
Obviously, there are other factors, such as Japan’s low wireline
Internet penetration rate, a cultural affinity for gadgets, etc. But the
fact remains that i-mode sites, even official ones, do fail or get
pulled down.
The passing of Natasha Nakamura might pre-empt much of what will happen
to wireless data services outside Japan, where the Internet’s free
content model will undoubtedly serve as a major deterrent for any pay
content on mobile phones.
So if a reportedly sticky content site – operating, I imagine, on a
shoestring – serving the world’s most successful wireless Internet
service still can't make it, what chance do wireless content providers
worldwide have?
Robb Satterwhite wrote:
>
> Hi Tony,
>
> Why don't you post your article? - I'm sure a lot of people would be
> interested in reading it here. Some might agree or disagree with your
> conclusions, but I'm sure it will spark an interesting discussion....
>
> Robb Satterwhite
> (Natasha Nakamura's editor)
>
> >As for the column, I had a great time writing it. It was too bad I
> >couldn't use your really name since I'm not supposed to quote anybody
> >off this list. But I thought the fact that even i-mode sites, despite
> >DoCoMo's much reported (yes, by the media) success in raking in the
> >revenues and driving up subscriber numbers, still fails, goes broke, or
> whatever.
> >
>
> [ Did you check the archives? http://www.appelsiini.net/keitai-l/ ]
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[ Did you check the archives? http://www.appelsiini.net/keitai-l/ ]
Received on Fri May 11 10:09:13 2001