(keitai-l) Re: Actual i-mode users in Nov.2000: 3,870,689 (rough estimate)

So the statistics indicates NTT DoCoMo uses the ownership as the
indicator for the sales of i-mode users(regardless whether they
use it or not.) But I assume they are paying it? There was a thead
of discussion in regards to how retailers just add the i-mode
charge to the users as long as they didn't say they don't want it.

But I found it a bit puzzling, it is 1-button push. So, 12 million
users who own the i-mode phone have never push the button during
the entire Nov?

Puzzled and a little disturbed.


Hubert


On Tue, 27 Mar 2001, Victor Pikula wrote:

> Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 18:18:32 +0200
> From: Victor Pikula <victor@pikula.com>
> Reply-To: keitai-l@appelsiini.net
> To: keitai-l@appelsiini.net
> Subject: (keitai-l) Actual i-mode users in Nov.2000: 3,870,
>     689 (rough estimate)
>
>
> Hello list members,
>
> To come to some conclusion about the number of actual i-mode users, I tried
> and combined statistics from a number of sources. First please read the
> explanation below, and, above all, remember the German proverb:
>
> "Only trust statistics you have manipulated yourself"
>
>
> 1) Discussing the actual usage of i-mode was difficult due to the lack of
> statistical data on this topic. But now, Hakuhodo Institute of Life and
> Living has released data on the actual usage of internet-enabled phones for
> internet access.
>
> http://www.nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com/wcs/leaf?CID=onair/asabt/fw/126491
>
> 2) We already had data from NTT DoCoMo on the number of i-mode capable
> handset owners and monthly subscriber numbers for the i-mode service. This
> number is now 21+ mln, but we'll use the November number for consistency
> with the above Hakuhodo data: 15,410,000.
>
> http://www.nttdocomo.co.jp/i/contract/index.html
>
> 3) D2 Communications has some statistics on i-mode owners discriminated by
> age group. I believe this data also only refers to the percentage of i-mode
> *owners*. Please be carefull to differentiate between *owners* and *users*
> in this context. The Hakuhodo research has the only data identifying this
> difference.
>
> http://www.d2c.co.jp/user/body02_01.html
> http://www.d2c.co.jp/user/body02_02.html
>
> Now, I combined these statistics in the following spreadsheet:
> http://www.pikula.com/i-mode_users.xls
>
> ... my conclusion is that the number of i-mode *users* adds up to 3,870,689.
> This is only for the age group 19~74 though.
>
>
> Known problems:
> 1) Age groups had to be combined for Hakuhodo/D2 data. Therefore "~19" is
> left out. "19~29" is a combination of the D2 "20~24" and "25~29" group.
> "30~49" is a combination of D2: "30~34", "35~39" and 2/3*"40+".
> Consequently, "50~74" is 1/3*"40+". Seemed like a good way to split up the
> group "40+" by assuming that only 1/3 of this group (owning and i-mode
> cellular phone) is over 50. This does not change the concluding number too
> much, since i-mode usage numbers over 40 is only a small contribution to the
> total number.
>
> 2) Data from the Hakuhodo research accounts for *all* internet-enabled
> phones in Japan. So it includes i-mode, J-Sky and EZweb. I had to assume
> actual usage is the same for all services. Most probably, it is, except for
> maybe Tu-ka which has, to my understanding, a lot of young users.
>
> 3) There is no indication in the original texts on the size of the sample
> group for the Hakuhodo and D2 data. For all we know, Hakuhodo could have
> done it on Shibuya square in just 10 minutes. Still, this would give you
> 1.000.000 valid responses from what I have seen there ;-) Also the D2
> statistics are not dated, but this should not be a major problem.
>
>
> Final remark: Please understand that I know about the coastline-of-Norway
> problem, and I have played Soccer with Mandelbrot just last week. This data
> is for my own research, and I just thought I would share it with the list.
> If you want to see some *really* sick data (for the die-hards out there) I
> also found a graphical relationship between new DoCoMo PDC buyers and i-mode
> subscribers... Trust me... you don't wanna know ;-)
>
> Regards,
> Victor
>
>
>
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>
>


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