(keitai-l) Re: Frustration makes way for...

Victor

That was an interesting comment about Nokia.

I think that the Nokia`s, Erricsons and Motorolas of the world should be
concerned about 3G and Asian (Japanese?) handsets coming in an conquering
the market in the rest of the world.

Its probably no co-incidence that Finland and Sweden were amongst the first
to deregulate telecoms and thus provided a great boost to the fortunes of
Nokia and Erricson.  The Japanese probably viewed their proprietary digital
telephone system as a way of keeping out foreign handset manufacturers.  (In
the analogue days Motorola etc had much larger market shares in Japan)
However in opting not to go the GSM route the Japanese lost out on the
chance to dominate other markets.  It certainly will be interesting to watch
the battle played out again with at last Japan adopting a global standard.

Would be interesting to hear a comment from Nokia (I see your in the list)
or Erricson?

Regards

Jamie Cattell
RI Japan



-----Original Message-----
From: Victor Pikula [mailto:victor@pikula.com]
Sent: Wednesday, January 31, 2001 1:24 AM
To: keitai-l@appelsiini.net
Subject: (keitai-l) Re: Frustration makes way for...


Hello all,

John wrote:
> There is MASSIVE latent demand here in the US.

But where is the related growth in supply? As far as my knowledge of
economic 
growth goes, it seems to me that the extreme growth period for the US is
over. 
This would imply that raising funds for new and exciting business areas is 
more difficult. Lay-offs are already a daily part of cnnfn.com's headlines. 
http://cnnfn.cnn.com/2001/01/29/companies/layoffs/

And if I see the telco section on ft.com, I get the following news items:
http://news.ft.com/news/industries/telecommunications

* Nokia meets estimates but warns of flat first quarter
* Viag Interkom narrows losses
* AT&T cuts earnings outlook
* BT may abandon Yell float
* DoCoMo links to PlayStation

Notice that the only good news in the mobile industry today, is DoCoMo news.

What is apparent to me, judging from an economic perspective, is that growth

is now shifting towards the Pacific region, away from America and also away 
from Europe.

On one hand, it is very possible that a company like Nokia will become the 
Thomson of the mobile device market. Their share could be easily swallowed
by 
Asian players once we all convert to the same 3G system.

But on the other hand; how about the operators, such as DoCoMo? How about 
content providers? Will they increase their marker share? Some people argue 
that these sectors are difficult to export outside of the Japanese 
marketplace, at least more difficult than "tangible" electronic devices.

My thinking is that the next Microsoft could just as easily be born in
Japan.

Hope to hear from y'all,
Victor


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