Hello all,
John wrote:
> There is MASSIVE latent demand here in the US.
But where is the related growth in supply? As far as my knowledge of economic
growth goes, it seems to me that the extreme growth period for the US is over.
This would imply that raising funds for new and exciting business areas is
more difficult. Lay-offs are already a daily part of cnnfn.com's headlines.
http://cnnfn.cnn.com/2001/01/29/companies/layoffs/
And if I see the telco section on ft.com, I get the following news items:
http://news.ft.com/news/industries/telecommunications
* Nokia meets estimates but warns of flat first quarter
* Viag Interkom narrows losses
* AT&T cuts earnings outlook
* BT may abandon Yell float
* DoCoMo links to PlayStation
Notice that the only good news in the mobile industry today, is DoCoMo news.
What is apparent to me, judging from an economic perspective, is that growth
is now shifting towards the Pacific region, away from America and also away
from Europe.
On one hand, it is very possible that a company like Nokia will become the
Thomson of the mobile device market. Their share could be easily swallowed by
Asian players once we all convert to the same 3G system.
But on the other hand; how about the operators, such as DoCoMo? How about
content providers? Will they increase their marker share? Some people argue
that these sectors are difficult to export outside of the Japanese
marketplace, at least more difficult than "tangible" electronic devices.
My thinking is that the next Microsoft could just as easily be born in Japan.
Hope to hear from y'all,
Victor
[ Did you check the archives? http://www.appelsiini.net/keitai-l/ ]
Received on Tue Jan 30 18:15:44 2001