From: "Jani PATOKALLIO" <jpatokal@iki.fi>
> So what is the crucial difference between using a CueCat attached
> to a laptop and using a scanner integrated into a mobile phone?
> Sure, the mobile phone is smaller and more convinient, but it
> would only seem to be a matter of degree.
So I guess there's really no reason for keitai internet access - everybody
could just tote their laptops around and access the internet that way,
through keitai modems. The fools.
It's only a matter of degree, of weight - except that, oops, laptops
are expensive. Yeah, that's only a matter of degree too, except
that.....
OK, so people can tote their *desktop* computers around (much
cheaper) with power supplies on carts. Just a difference in
degree, after all. In weight. But also, dammit, in price, still.
What to do?
Hey, if you use Myanmarese labor to make pneumatic computers
out of bamboo and cast-iron, we could hit a $50 price-point
for something that would fit in a truck....or two....just matter
of degree, after all....
You must see where this is going. In fact, where it has already
gone: people will put up with the obvious inconvenience of
thumbtyping and tiny screens just to have something that will
fit in their pockets.
"Quantity has a quality all its own." (Why did it have to be
Lenin who said that? Makes me sound like some
commie-symp.) And, for certain quantities in certain
situations, "Less is More." (Probably some other
Lenin-inspired commie - Schumacher? - I've given up.)
> > You've got to be kidding - magazines on a tiny screen? Would you
> > read that Salon article you pointed us to if it were on your mobile
> > phone? All of it?
>
> Eeyup. You see, I'm working with wearable computers, with a particular
> interest in eyeglass-integrated displays and mobile networking.....
Cool. I love this stuff. Always have. But tell me: have they done
human-factors research on using this for ordinary reading matter?
And what has the result been?
> > Maybe, but I happen to have an O'Reilly book open in front of me,
> > flipped to the back pages....
>
> Sure, but you'll have to get O'Reilly to add in lots of barcodes
> first, which means an instant chicken-and-egg problem:....
If this sort of barrier were insuperable, we wouldn't have barcode
in the first place. Nor human language, come to think of it.
With so much barcode already out there, half the problem is
solved anyway. The other half involves what Japanese
consumer electronics companies do for a living: try some
weird new thing this month, and see if it sticks. If the
eggs stinks, it's gone. If it hatches, the resulting chickens
pay for all the stinkers and then some.
> And again, the wearable approach would be to add a camera
> with OCR, transforming anything with "http://" into a clickable
> link.
Is this likely to be mass-marketable any sooner than 10 years from
now?
In my experience, you need
(1) Silicon Valley going bananas over a new platform concept
and flinging many cubic dollars at commercial efforts, with a
clamorous media blitzkrieg in the industry journals of record;
(2) a pathetic flame-out, except in certain tiny niche markets:
(3) a five-year cooling-off period during which VCs don't even
return calls about the idea, and the only people who make any
money off it are cartoonists making fun of it;
(4) Finally, some modest commercial offerings, with scaled-back
ambitions and more mature technology, enjoying growing
acceptance outside the early-adopter techno-fetish circles.
This final success is usually from completely different companies.
E.g. 3Com, rather than Apple, in the case of palmtops.
I'd say we're not even at stage (1) with wearables. If that seems
disappointing, look at it this way: 8-10 years from now, when
the whole world is going bananas for wearables, you'll be cool
because you'll already be so bored with it all.
Keitai barcode-reading could probably skip this whole Wagnerian
cycle, since it's such a negligible hardware hack, and the medium
of interest (barcode) is already long established.
> And yes, you could implement this for barcodes as well;
> in fact, Sony already has a cute toy called "CyberCode"....
> ....Alas, this too is pretty much useless in practice....
Two likely barriers: your laptop (which you'd have to lug
around) and the fact that "bar-code-*like*" doesn't cut it.
It's gotta be what's already out there, industry-standardized.
Barcode. Especially, product codes.
Would you put a wearable on the market that weighed
15 kilos and could only be programmed with a language
that nobody knew?
Yes? Well, exercise your stock options early, OK?
> > Among the (non)problems mentioned in the Salon article on CueCat:
> > Barcode readers on keitais would be built in - no installation.
>
> Except that somebody has to enter all the barcodes into a database,
> which is half the installation problem.
I guess if the author of Napster had had this sort of imagination
lapse ("Gee, I want everybody to be able to listen to
all the music in the world, but I guess I should give up now
and try to pass my Operating Systems course this semester
'cuz it would take me too long to get all the titles on-line")...
Comparison shopping over keitai will probably bootstrap
the same way that comparison shopping has bootstrapped itself
since the invention of money: person-to-person, market
by market. An economist might point out that this is how
the whole price-signal system has always worked anyway.
Going mobile with it would probably be only a second-order
optimization, if that.
> ....Yet other services could take you to price-comparison
> > pages.
> And how will independent services make money? Is the feature attractive
> enough that people will pay subscription fees, or will they have
> to rely on the good old banner advertising model again?
Possibly neither.
I'd tap the discount store chains, who'd definitely have an
interest in having their latest prices known. Instantly. Anywhere.
To shoppers that would (self-evidently) be looking for products
that they carry, and a price-conscious way.
The more marketing-oriented can take it from there. As well
as those who patent business models - I *think* I've reached
that level of detail by now. *Sigh*.
-m
leap@gol.com
[ Did you check the archives? http://www.appelsiini.net/keitai-l/ ]
Received on Fri Nov 24 12:08:32 2000