The adoption of I-mode by European carriers would be a major loss for
Ericsson and other providers of GSM technology like Nokia, Siemens, and
Motorola. They are not major suppliers of the I-mode phones or packet
system
so this would provide docomo's four phone manufacturers (who receive
preferential information from docomo) with a chance to expand their
presence
in Europe.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think some nuance is necessary in this discussion of I-Mode adoption by
European carriers.
In my opinion the technology of I-Mode will not be adopted by the European
carriers. WAP is very clearly the choice
of the European carriers, mainly because the whole technological package is
more advanced and
the standard is so open that it could be adopted by all without any threat.
Also, the growing popularity of WAP
has created the content base which is necessary for future growth of WAP.
What should be adopted of I-Mode is the business models. Although most
European carriers are also capable
of service billing through the mobile phone bill, there are many more other
models which are very interesting for
European network operators. It is questionable whether the complete
strategy can be adopted since the Japanese
market differs from most European markets. With a market share of around
58%, a government still very on it's side
and a tight 'relationship' with manufacturers, DoCoMo is in a very unique
position.
However, I-Mode technology has hardly anything to do with the core-business
of companies such as Nokia,
Ericsson and Siemens. Even if (rare chance!) I-Mode as a whole is adopted,
these companies will be delivering
the core network which is the real money maker. Whatever way the top layer
in the network model does, all
layers beneath will be delivered by the traditional network builders.
Please don't make the mistake by thinking that the technological part of
I-Mode (cHML standards, gateway, etc)
is very much interweaved with the network. To put it even stronger: looking
at it from a network perspective the technical
part of I-Mode is not even so different from WAP.
To sum up my prediction:
+ I-Mode technology will not be adopted
+ I-Mode business models will be adopted
--------------
Also:
When I spoke to many persons working in Japan in this area (including
persons on this list, thank you for the discussions
that we had), almost everyone thought that WAP was a huge failure in
Europe. This view mainly was created through
the various articles that were posted here and there.
The 'failure' is not the technology, it is the way WAP was marketed. In
Europe most people were already accustomed to
the Internet with all it's rich content and interactivity. WAP was marketed
as 'the Internet through your mobile phone',
which it is not. In Japan there was only a 10% penetration of the Internet.
Therefore, people had no comparison, and
DoCoMo marketed I-Mode as an extension to the phone instead of 'the mobile
Internet', which it is. Europeans were
spoiled and expectations were badly managed.
A second error that the European carriers made in their marketing was
targeting it at the business professional with
applications such as Agenda and Travel Services, unable to see that the
'innovators and early adopters' would be the youth.
Replacing WAP with the technical part of I-Mode would solve no problem.
Even so, we would exchange a better standard
for a (slightly) lesser standard, and their won't be any content for it
since most sites will still be focussed at WAP (although creating an
I-Mode channel when you already have a WAP channel is very simple).
However, the great business models of I-Mode,
including the way it is marketed, should be adopted by European carriers at
e-speed.
Best regards,
Paul
Received on Wed Oct 18 11:54:03 2000