If I could summarize what Jason says here, it might be:
iMode leads because of
1. good marketing
2. NTT's positional strength
WAP lags (so far) because of
1. (weak) WML learning curve
2. (weak) lack of content
3. (stronger) WAP standards development delays
4. (stronger) use costs
5. (stronger, but not in Japan) phone turnover costs
What I like about this analysis, however much I might question
the weighting of factors, is that it is recognizes so many factors.
They are not completely independent factors, of course - part of
NTT's "good marketing" was, arguably, "lowest-common-denominator
technology choice (HTML base)", for example. But that's not so
important, I think. The real lesson is that when something
remarkable happens, it's a good idea to resist the temptation to fix
on some single cause for that singular event - if anything, singular
events are more often cominatorial in nature than otherwise.
To focus on one factor, however:
It's interesting that one of the more dramatic differences is in
turnover costs. In the states (a few years ago) I found myself
locked into a service contract ($300 exit clause) for longer than
the compatible rechargers for my phone were in stock. And
the supplied recharger broke after the warranty expired. I finally
cobbled something together from a car-cigarette-lighter-compatible
plug, plus a wall-plug-to-cigarette-lighter adapter. Didn't follow that?
Never mind....the point is, the Art of the (Mobile) Deal in the U.S.
seemed at that time to be mostly about slowing things
down. And ensuring a profit today, not tomorrow.
You can't have high turnover in that high-profit
scenario.
In Japan, by contrast, they practically pride themselves on
speedy iteration on electronic gadgets, and damn the cost. I once
met a corporate VP here who was convinced that Japan
would break the automatic natural-language translation
barrier sooner than any country in the West, because (could
I make this up?) Japan could iterate on electronic gadgets
faster than Western software companies could get software
product releases out. Ridiculous reasoning, yes, but highly
illustrative of a key attitude.
In the last few weeks, I've met several chip designers involved
in substrate technologies for handsets, and they all say the
same thing: their (Japanese) company is not making any money
selling handsets. They are all focused on potential, right
now, not profitability. Profit is about covering past and
future costs of doing business, and profit is what these companies
have decided to forgo for the moment. They wouldn't do this
without reason.
This situation compels the question: what makes these
electronics manufacturers so sure that there *is* a big
win out there? Or at least, not too much of a loss? In
this, I think they feel assured that NTT is on the side
of any winners, at least domestically. And that doesn't
seem out of character in the least.
NTT is doing what it does best: providing market stability
and long-term profit assurance for its equipment suppliers
and other dependents.
Japanese consumer electronics manufacturers are doing
what *they* do best: short product cycles.
Very Japanese, you must admit.
Michael Turner
www.idiom.com/~turner
leap@gol.com
----- Original Message -----
From: <jason.c.freedman@ac.com>
To: <keitai-l@appelsiini.net>
Sent: Tuesday, August 15, 2000 2:46 PM
Subject: (keitai-l) Re: New member/i-mode stumbles?
[ Excessive quoting deleted by moderator ]
Received on Wed Aug 16 08:18:03 2000