In the "William G. Perrin III" <bill@tsubakimoto.co.jp> recommended James
Churchill article
http://www.unstrung.com/server/display.php3?id=156&cat_id=2 on the pending
docomo/aolJ deal:
"For AOL, the potential gains are obvious..Piggy-backing on a virtual
monopoly in a country where the wireless internet is not so much the next
wave as the next tsunami,...must all be music to the ears of AOL, which has
struggled to reach market share of double figures in many other countries."
PR: The important point is that AOL, along with other internet content
providers/isp's in Japan, are limited in attracting customers by the high
cost of land-line internet connection and the Japanese' not-so-hot
enthusiasm for the full-on, land-line internet. Accessing the potential
customers via wireless, with a dominant player who already has so many
customers, is a brilliant move for AOL in the J market, I believe.
"But perhaps the more apposite question would be, what are the benefits from
the deal for the bride - for NTT DoCoMo? The only thing that AOL
realistically brings to the table is content matter."
PR: DoCoMo can get content from many other sources. I think the major
benefit for dcm is aol's customers, in particular in the U.S. DCM is trying
to go international and the US market is one of their major targets.
"...everybody wants to be part of the conglomerate that sells content to its
own captive audience. This was the theory at least, behind the Japanese
buying of Hollywood studios, back in the day: create a fully everticalf
synergy, whereby Sony (just to use a completely random name as an example)
would sell Sony-produced films to be viewed on Sony-made VCRs."
PR: To use a not-so-random example, Matsushita bought MGM not to have MGM
films be viewable only on Matsushita VCRs, but to match the what at the time
seemed like a bold move by Sony, but also to out do Sony's Columbia purchase
without any solid strategy. Such ego/prestige matches were the order of the
day during Japan's heydays.
"And NTT DoCoMo is not so much standing as being held immobile right in the
middle of sniperfs alley. Most of the other large mobile phone
manufacturers, Nokia, Ericsson, Motorola, have tied their standards to the
mast of syncml - the consortium which is simultaneously trying to develop,
and impose, a world-wide, single standard wireless protocol, as their own
ehorizontal synergyf ticket to ride."
PR: The snipers are shooting blanks right now, while dcm is shooting real
bullets, albeit a .22 calibre, but plenty of it. If WAP'ers keep tripping
themselves up, all the more customer base for dcm groups to build up, then
simply transfer that base right into the next level protocol, whatever that
may be. And the phone makers are not blind to this reality: Ericsson will
make their phones both WAP and cHTML enabled.
"But this sort of evertical synergyf deal has also largely passed NTT
DoCoMo by, until the report of the AOL-NTT DoCoMo negotiations on July
25th."
PR: Again, I see this mostly as a cross access to customer base deal and
only some
as content/portal and wireless service deal.
"...doubts are already surfacing about NTT DoCoMofs ability to follow
through with itfs ...attempts to expand itself internationally,...All of
which makes NTT DoCoMo look more and more like a shakee and movee, rather
than a shaker and a mover on the international scene."
PR: By any measure, dcm is already the most successful mobile internet
service provider. If dcm does not get overly attached to cHTML (i.e., use
it only until something better comes along) and if dcm is released from the
NTT group (I wouldn't be surprised if it happened in the next couple of
years), we'll be looking at a top international player.
Just my 2 yen's worth.
PR
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Received on Sat Jul 29 21:38:04 2000